Influence of a network of rural roads on a steady development for agriculture and quality of life

There area bout 28 thousand settlements (85 % - rural) in Russia which have no links with the general network by paved roads. Two decade ago famous geographer G. Ioffe proved that the productivity of agriculture influence on equity life conditions in rural localities and cities basically, more correctly influence on transport accessibility to cities. Bonitet, natural fertileness of soils play secondary role. We develop a new indicator – level of transport discrimination of the population. It shows a share of the population living in adverse transportation terms (on time expenses) which are created by absence of roads or bad roads. Transport discrimination – the phenomenon of non receipt of the socially-guaranteed minimum of services exclusively for the reasons of spatial dissociation (instead of because of small incomes, for example).

It was distinguished two types of transport discrimination: based on non-regular services and daily (regular) services. For a countryside the last are more important, when the countryman can receive medical aid, sends the child in school, to buy the necessary goods, to get access to communication and mail for defined time.

If roads are not present also these services are inaccessible, the poor road network becomes the reason of reproduction of noncompetitive persons. The human potential does not grow, despite population growth, and the country grows poor more and more.

Level of transport discrimination of daily links fluctuates from 0,1 % in the developed European countries to 5-6 % in the European part of Russia, 40-50 % in Kazakhstan and to 100 % in Siberian regions of Russia.

There are two principal causes on which development of a rural network of roads lags behind the general rates of development of a road infrastructure.

1. The disbalance in plans for development of rural and main networks is connected with erroneous opinion on an absolute priority of the main network (in Russia - a federal network). Certainly, the investor will receive return from investments on a network of the main roads easier. But if to consider all network of separate area as one investment project (which we name the network approach to road planning), positive return of investments is possible approximately in 40 % of cases (about it is possible below).

2. Organizational irresponsibility of state structures for destiny of rural roads and, as consequence, their insufficient financing. In Russia two ministries: transport and agriculture. – regularly gather (in the average time in three years) to solve how to increase financing of rural roads. And always it ascertain that the plan is not executed. So, under the federal program accepted in 2002 for 10 years, it was planned to constract18000 km of roads, but 6500 km are constructed only. At last such meeting in 2007 the decision is accepted that not less than 10 % of federal grants for a road network should be given to a countryside. If to consider that grants make less than 20 % of the general financing on rural roads there are less than 2 % of financing. It makes about 1,5 billion dollars till 2015, and as a result 2300 rural settlements will be connected to the general network.

Because of a lack of federal financing many regions accept own programs on development of rural roads (table 1). Figures in last column accurately reflect dependence: the better an existing network of rural roads the less to be spent for them counting on 1 km. In Krasnodar region still in the sixties the last century asphalt roads in width of 4,5 m to field camps and farms have been constructed.

Table 1. Some regional programs on development of rural roads to Russia.

Region	Program Term	Cost, Million dollars	Volume, km	Compare volume of investments on 1 km, million dollars
Krasnodar region	2004-2008	13	285	0,046
Republic Udmurtiya	2009-2013	703	539	1,304
The Orenburg region	2005-2015	333	870	0,383
Republic Chuvashiya	2003-2010	180	1162	0,155

How to make so that for the investor it was favourable to construct rural roads? The majority of experts answer this question negatively. Actually, the answer at least, is not unequivocal.

The first condition – it is necessary to define interested proprietors who would like to put up money in rural roads. It is defined by statistical models where function is cost of production and services, and arguments – quality of the road network in the form of indicator ITA (Integral transport accessibility) and other indicators influencing on cost.

For last five years we collect the data on 30 regions of Russia and the CIS and are received more than 3000 equations, their which more than 300 have good statistical reliability (the part from them is resulted in table 2).

Table 2.Equations for Kirov region

The function Name	Arguments: Х1- ITAcargo., Х2- ITApass., A - other	Units of measure	The Forecast of influence from improvement ITA on 1 h (for comparison: Kr – Krasnodar, T – Tatarstan)	Accuracy (R²)	Share ITA in cost , %	Potential benefit from improvement ITA on 1 h., million $
Productivity grain	F=9,98+0,1A20+1,28A38-1,37Х1	centner/hectare	1,4 (Кp-6,4)	0,543	8,8	0,02
Cost for manufactures grain	F=371,3-12,5A7+38,1Х1	$ /centner	1,26	0,357	9,4	768,5
Cost for milk manufactures	F=596,5-0,06A33+42,95Х1	$/ centner	1,4	0,282	8,1	1,78
Animal industries release	F=64,45-17,73Х1	Million $	0,59	0,076	7,5	0,6
Cost of horned cattle	F=0,77+0,08Х1	Million $	0,26	0,083	2,4	7.4
Cost for pork manufactures	F=0,77+0,04Х1	Million $	0,12	0,281	14.9 (T-10)	0,43
cost of the food-processing industry	F =-0,33+0,297Х1	Million $	1,0 (K-0,55)	0,377	26,5 (T-18)	81,2
Death rate from a tuberculosis	F=145,4-19A4+41,57Х1	The people /100 thousand population	4,2	0,205	13,5	-
Building of new individual habitation	F=861+306,8A6-677,7Х1	m²	678	0,336	8,4	-
Specific disease	F=611,7+76,4Х1	Days/100 working	76,4	0,095	9,4	-
Level of the registered unemployment	F=11,62-0,002A18+0,54Х2	%	0,54	0,226	4,4	-
Balance of migration	F =-227+0,1A111+35Х2	The people	40	0,192	4,9	-

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Results of modeling have shown that manufacturers of milk, grain, meat, and also a soya, sunflower are most dependent on a road condition in a countryside. With the help statistical analysis it is possible to define a transport component in social indicators, such as, unemployment, disease of the population, migratory appeal and even a crime rate. By experts of the World organization of public health services it is defined that the difference in incomes is not the fundamental reason of an inequality of health of the population. Along with reservoirs (quality of water) and roads are named by one of health primary factors, and not at all because of possible road accidents). The chain of reasons is following: the better the rural roads, the more often the reference to doctors, will not spend is easier prophylactic medical examination, hence, no to collect chronic illnesses.

In the conditions of Russia timber cuttings strongly depend on roads. For example, in the Kirov region of 49 % from 3660 settlements have no good roads. Program РРР where 65 % of financial resources will be brought by lumberers, and 35 % - the state (same will be also benefits from realization of the program of partnership in seven rural areas) (table 3) has been accepted.

Table 3. The private-state partnership in wood sector in Kirov region

District	Length, km	Construction, million $	Repair, million $.	The maintenance, million $ (annually)	The Total gain of quality of the transport environment (ITAcargo., hour) *	Annual commercial effects from cost price decrease, million $	Social Effect, thousand $
Beloholunitsky	21	8,2	0,1	0,03	0,002		3
Verhnekamsky	180	71,7	1,4	0,42	0,008		2.7
Darovsky	75	39,6	0,9	0,26	0,024		20
Murashinsky	87	35.1	1,5	0,47	0,214		76,7
Nagorsky	180	64,5	1,4	0,47	0,058		76,7
Nemsky	37	14,6	0,2	0,06	0,080		13.3
Oparinsky	169	60,4	1,8	0,53	0,104		50
Shabalinsky	107	42,7	1,7	0,54	0,017		6,7
Total Including private investments	855	336.9 204,5	9.0 274,4	2.7 69,2		2005-12,2 2020-48,9	243.3

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The second condition is the network approach to an estimation of investments on the basis of scenario modeling by means of system of strategic planning of transport and roads ‘ Geogracom 6 ”. In the majority of researches the feasibility estimation of project occurs by a piece principle: separate road or its part – efficiency of investments into it. Thus, it is ignored that in the same area during the same time the adjoining road is under repair, and the new bridge further is under construction. As modeling show, the sum of effects of separate objects less than an integrated estimation of effect of all objects in the given territory if them to consider as one network project shows. As a rule, in the network project within a year in area territory there are 5-10 objects for repair, reconstruction and buildings, and 80 % from them – rural.

In 2009 where long-term strategy of development of a network of roads of Primorski Region on the instructions of the government («the White book of roads of Primorski Region» has been developed. Financial scenarios of development of a network of roads (yellow colour are shown districts with network efficiency more than 1,0, green colour - it is less 1,0) are reflected in a map. Only in eight of 25 districts development of rural roads do not effective for the investor. The red column of the diagramme shows size of investments only in rural roads.

For the government of Primorski region special modeling has been spent to define, how world financial crisis (and a local failure in gross national product) will affect strategy realization. As a whole across Primorski region, for thirty years financing will be reduced to 1,4 billion dollars because of what the total elapsed time of realization of strategy will be transferred with 2032 for 2039.