Urban
transport – the virtual source for sustainability of a city
V.N.
Bougromenko and E.G. Myasoedova
Research and consulting company Geogracom, Russia
Abstract
Strategic
planning (of sustainable development) implies a shift from technical, branch
indices to humanitarian ones characterizing standards of living. In context of
urban transportation the solution is urban transport standard, which is an
aggregate of the indices of end consumption of transport services minimally
required to sustain normal living conditions, such as mobility, level of
transport discrimination, level of ecological safety, net contribution of urban
transport to GDP.
Introduction
What
is sustainability in a broad meaning of this word? Let's remind ourselves that
the main sense of sustainability, defined in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, is
"a way of life", and that means such consumption of resources today
that will allow the future generations to breath a cleaner air.
Eight years later it became
obvious that sustainability implies not only environmentally friendly attitude,
but it also covers socio-economic, geopolitical, cultural and even purely
financial aspects. The key issue of indices-orientations of sustainable
development put forward the same questions with respect to the above stated
aspects, especially in connection with the needs of the future generations.
From the point of view of environmental protection finding forecast parameters
of the environmental evolution was not the most difficult task. What was
difficult is finding a way to reduce to a "common denominator" the
needs of the future generations in the socio-economic sphere. We have made some
efforts trying to solve the encountered problems on the example of sustainable
development of a city, to be more exact – sustainable development of urban
transport.
This article sets out two interconnected problems:
1.
Needs of the future generations, as an
vision of the desired state of city life that our grandsons and great grandsons
will lead, bear a virtual character and depend on forecast period, as well as
on specific features of a country and general world organisation;
2.
The city of the future will survive mainly
due to its communications. And here we are speaking chiefly about
telecommunications, not transportation. However, the life of at least three
more generations is going to depend on the level of development of urban
transportation. That is why a sustainable city is a city with sustainable urban
transportation.
Minimal urban
transport standard
The advent of the new millennium necessitates new conceptions of social development reflecting modern tendencies.
With regard to the specific character of transportation as an infrastructure,
it can be said that its role in sustainable development of the society is
rather ambiguous. And it is even more so with urban passenger transportation.
Transport
policy in the countries with social market economy aims at revival of public
transportation and curb on the number of individual vehicles. The 90-s were
marked by increasing role of rail transport in the infrastructure. It was
mainly due to ecological problems in the cities. Efforts to privatise urban
passenger transport (UPT) were reduced to nothing, the reason being low
profitability of UPT or its absolute unprofitable nature. Thus, UPT falls under
more and more active patronage of the state authorities. However, the methods
of state “intervention” should be controlled by the end goals of its existence
– a universal well-being, including concern about the future generations. Therefore,
there is a connection between this process and sustainable development in its
broader meaning. This connection is the very essence of UTS.
The future of public urban
transportation depends on the degree of significance that will be attached to
the following three major tasks:
-
fulfilment of social duties with regard to
those sections of the population that do not have individual vehicles;
-
maintenance or improvement of economic
stability in the districts where services are provided;
-
minimal damage to the environment.
The most important component of the social sphere functioning is the
state social regulation, implying legal regulation of social development with
application of the most significant social norms and standards. Economic
expediency consists in effective provision of the population with the needed
passenger communications to the extent when the cost of the system (in its
broad meaning) is still offset by the contribution to the well-being of the
society.
To achieve this goal, urban transport system should meet the following
requirements:
-
be a balanced combination of public and
private transport with consideration of local, socio-economic, technical and
ecological abilities and limitations;
-
be convenient, reliable and safe, while
using limited resources of energy, land, etc. more rationally.
In the context of urban transportation social norms
are scientifically grounded qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the
optimal state of business and household activity, which depend on passenger transportation.
Urban transport standard (UTS) is a combination of
target indices (norms) of end consumption of transport services, achievement of
which guarantees sustainable development. UTS ensures that the citizens will receive
minimally required level of transport services.
Unlike purely branch indices (such as volume of
passenger conveyance, average trip distance, coefficient of transport pool on
line, prime cost of conveyance), characterising the work of urban transport,
the indices that constitute UTS are the results of UPT functioning, reflecting
normal transport conditions of business and household activity.
The value of social norms cannot be considered
constant. It is subject to complex dynamic modifications, because any normative
requirement should have "an open-ended structure", which means
capability to change quantitative parameters and the list of these
characteristics.
The range of the indices and qualitative characteristics
of their parameters are determined by:
- current level of urban development (population size, level of real
income per capita, features of architectural planning, life expectancy, level
of social expenditures in the city budget);
- potential development of a city (industrial potential, type of the
demographic structure of the population);
- city size.
On the whole UTS should reflect value orientations of
the society that can be translated into reality in 5-20 years and used for the
following issues:
- strategic planning of urban development with regard
to town-planning, economic and social features;
-
creation of a new mechanism of procuring
financial support for development of urban passenger transportation (shift from
paragraph-by-paragraph financing to per capita financing) leading to a more
effective use of budget means.
The following sets of norms can be singled out:
-
direct quantitative expression of degree of
various requirements, or norms expressing the absolute degree of a certain
requirement;
-
norms expressing a relative degree of a
certain requirement.
Each city receives its own set of indices developed
with consideration of its architectural planning features, level of real income
per capita a year, level of social expenditure in the city budget, level of
ecological safety, and planning period, which can be 5.5 – 10 or more than 10
years.
The goal of urban transport policy is establishment of
the required end state that can range from a very high standard of living to a
very specific threshold value. Elimination of difference found between the
actual and designed (normative) values of UTS is the end goal of urban
passenger transport development from the point of view of sustainable
development.
UTS can consist of the following main indices:
1.
Transport mobility of the population.
Transport mobility is one the main indices describing
the transportation system of a city. It is an integral index reflecting a
contradictory set of factors:
-
rhythm of the city life;
-
town-planning features and planning structure;
-
current state and development of the transportation
system;
-
city economy.
Taking into consideration complexity and contradictory
nature of this index, only one part of it can be incorporated in UTS –
transport mobility with social and cultural purposes (trips/person a year). In
other words, minimal level of travelling with the above-mentioned purposed in
mind, the level that is guaranteed to each citizen given present state of the urban
transport system.
Social and cultural trips have been set aside with a
purpose, because the rest of the trips (to work, college) is obligatory and
unavoidable. In the future telecommunications will help us to study and work
without leaving our respective homes, however, seeing friends, going to
theatres, museums, etc. is a free choice of our own, and it requires a
"live" trip. Thanks to the technical progress unavoidable trips are
supposed to decrease in number, while "free will" ones should
continually increase.
2.
Ratio of public to private transport
means.
Ratio of development level of public urban transport
(PUT) to individual transport (IT) greatly influences the parameters of the
road network, as well as the economic characteristics of the system in general.
Low density of geographical distribution and locations
of work places and service centres favours development of individual transportation,
while PUT is economically justified by a higher density of building and
concentration of production. Decision in favour of predominant development of
IT deteriorates conditions of PUT functioning, making it not always
economically justifiable, because the number of users decreases. PUT and IT
should not be competing, but exist in harmony and complement each other.
PUT is an important factor of urban economic
development. The future of this type of transportation should be connected with
the solution of such problems as:
-
fulfilment of social duties with regard to
those sections of the population that do not have individual vehicles;
-
maintenance or improvement of economic stability
in the districts where services are provided;
-
abatement of pollution caused by PUT.
Thus, the optimal ratio of PUT to IT guarantees that each and every
citizen will enjoy normal transport conditions.
3.
Reliability of UPT (Level of Integral
transport accessibility).
Integral transport accessibility (ITA) is the index reflecting the
quality of urban transport environment. It is given in the form of average
weighted loss of time spent on passenger conveyance. An urban transport network
should be considered reliable if it makes it possible for one to get from any
place to any other place within the period called normative time inclusive time
needed to reach an embarkation place, waiting time and changes on the way. Note
that ITA norm is determined with respect to functional peculiarities of each location
in the city. Level of transport accessibility is measured in % as ratio of
actual average weighted loss of time spent on passenger conveyance to normative
loss.
4.
Level of transport discrimination of the
population.
Level of transport discrimination of the population shows in % what part
of the citizens live outside the zone of normative accessibility. Similar to
index 3, it is calculated with the help of expert system Geograd.
5.
Convenience of transportation by UPT.
Convenience in PUT system is determined by a
set of heterogeneous factors, technical equipment, technologies, transport
organisation and management influencing passengers' physical and mental state
during transportation.
From the point of view of convenience a
specific character of PUT is defined by the following circumstances:
- in PUT system the notion "convenience" refers to the whole
trip – "from door to door", and not only to transportation;
- relatively short period of time taken up by transportation proper if
compared with other phases of a trip;
- day-by-day multiple use of PUT system.
In general, it can be said that inconvenience of PUT system increases
passengers' physical and mental tiredness. Therefore, the degree of quality
called convenience should be measured in the units of passengers' physical and
mental tiredness.
In the course of study of the convenience issue it is necessary to
subdivide the notion of convenience into measurable attributes. Keeping in mind
that certain characteristics of convenience can be set apart as independent
indices or reflected in other indices, the main criterion of convenience can be
the index giving number of people standing on one square meter of the salon of
a vehicle.
6.
Specific lost free time fund.
Total unproductive loss of time spent on chase after transport services
of socially guaranteed minimum by each city-dweller a day (measured in
hours). Quantitative representation of
this standard makes it possible to assess the quality of UPT functioning and
evaluate its social (public) usefulness.
7.
Share of UPT in total pollution.
Development of urban transport systems has brought
forth a problem of evaluation of influence of transport functioning on the
ecological situation in a city. The problem can be solved by establishing
strict norms that would determine the level of ecological safety and
encouragement of muscular transport modes.
The main negative results of influence of the transport on the urban
environment are air and noise pollution. Share of UTP in total pollution is
estimated in % of total pollution from all sources. Moreover, there can be additional
standards:
- level of noise pollution (decibels per 1 vehicle);
- level of toxic fumes (million ton/million pass.-km).
8.
Level of development of muscular transport
modes.
Share of muscular transport modes (e.g. bicycles) in total number of
trips undertaken by city-dwellers (%).
9.
Accident level due to UPT.
Traffic safety during passenger conveyance is the challenge for all
transport modes. Emergency situations on roads are a phenomenon accompanying
the motorization of the society and leading to significant losses.
Traffic safety is the criterion of choice made in favour of this or that
means of conveyance.
On the basis of analysis of safety issue in Russia and abroad some
specific indices-criteria were established:
- number of accidents involving fatal injuries per 105 passengers;
- number of accidents involving fatal injuries per 104
vehicles.
10. "Effectiveness" of UPT.
This index is calculated as ratio of results to costs. Results are
monetary estimation of the share of transport in the gross domestic product of
a city (or the gross added value) calculated on the basis of the methodology
developed by Geogracom company. Costs are the whole sum allotted for
development of the urban transport system (subsidies from the city budget,
taxes and other sources). If the value of this index is more than 1, then
financial support of the urban transport system is expedient.
All 10 parameters of UTS are determined for a concrete city on the basis
of the following factors:
1.
Current level of development and structure
(number of citizens in a city (N), city surface (F), characteristics of
architectural planning structure (K);
2.
Potential level of development and period of
strategic planning.
Type of architectural planning structure influences the average distance
of a trip undertaken by one citizen in a given city. It is believed that
average trip distance (L av.), city surface (F) and coefficient of
town-planning structure (K) are interconnected by the following formula
(Velmozhin & Gukov [1]):
L av. =
1.2+0.25 Ê
. (1)
Coefficient of town-planning structure (K) depends on the type of this
very structure:
1 – linear with cross-distribution with regard to the mains of major
gravity centres of the population, K=0.6-0.9;
2 – compact town-planning structure with centripetal distribution of
major gravity centres of the population, K=0.7-1.1;
3 – compact with lengthwise distribution with regard to the mains of
major gravity centres of the population, K=0.9-1.2;
4 – linear with lengthwise distribution with regard to the mains of
major gravity centres of the population, K=1.2-2.0.
This connection between mobility of the population and town-planning
structure is conditional. However, it is sufficient for the purposes of
strategic planning.
Besides, there are some strategic parameters characterising the potential level of city development and defining normative parameters of the UTS indices:
- real income per capita
1000-5000;
5001-10,000; over 10,000 (dollars a year);
- index of economic provision of social guarantees – expenditure on social
needs (% of the city budget)
less than
20%; 20-40%; over 40%;
- level of ecological safety – specific pollution (carbon monoxide), mg/m3
less than 1;
1-3; over 3;
- determination of strategic planning period
up to 5
years; 5-10 years; more than 10 years.
Geogracom has developed a methodology of automated calculation of UTS.
For example, Table 1 represents parameter values that are suggested, depending
on the desired (strategic) level of income per capita, for a city with up to
500 thousand citizens (group 3 according to the conventional classification,
Vaksman [2]) and a linear architectural planning structure with
cross-distribution with regard to the mains of major gravity centres of the
population.
Table1:
Influence of the level of real income on parameters of the UTS indices.
|
Indices |
Real income (US$ per capita) |
||
|
1000-5000 |
5001-10,000 |
over 10,000 |
|
|
1. Transport mobility of the population with social
and cultural purposes, trips/person a year |
150 |
200 |
250 |
|
2. Ratio of public and individual transport, % |
75:25 |
50:50 |
20:80 |
|
3. Reliability of urban transportation, % |
over
80 |
over 90 |
over 95 |
|
4. Level of development of muscular transportation,
% |
over 5 |
over 15 |
over 35 |
|
5. Level of transport discrimination of the
population, % |
less that 5 |
less than 2 |
less than 1 |
|
6. Level of comfort and convenience of conveyance,
persons/sq. m |
less that 5 |
less that 4.5 |
less than 3.5 |
|
7. Specific lost fund of free time a day, hours a
day per person |
less that 0.3 |
less that 0.15 |
less than 0.15 |
|
8. Share of transport pollution in the total
pollution, including public urban transport |
60 10 |
65 8 |
75 5 |
|
9.Accident level through fault of transport: number of
fatal injuries per 105 passengers; number of fatal injuries per 104 vehicles. |
less than 12 less than 10 |
less than 12 less than 10 |
less than 10 less than 6.5 |
|
10. Efficiency of urban passenger transportation |
1.12 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
The obtained values served as a basis for perspective UTS indices that
should be corrected with regard to the following factors:
- economic provision of social guarantees (level of expenditure on social
needs in the city budget);
- level of ecological safety.
Final values of the indices depend on the potential of
general development of a city (low, medium, high) that is determined in the
expert mode on the basis of two indices – industrial potential of a city and
demographic structure of the population.
Industrial
potential of a city is determined by possible expansion of the economy
(increase in output volumes of products and services) – advantageous location,
availability of materials, labour and capital resources, possible change of the
city status.
Demographic structure of the population, depending on
the ratio (%) of the age groups (up to 14 years of age, 15-49 years, over 50
years), can be progressive (30-50-20), stationary (25-50-30), and regressive
(20-50-30).
Study of works on development and functioning of urban
transport by home and foreign authors ([1-5]) has led to systematisation and
application of some already formed tendencies and dependences that can be used
as limitations during calculation of the UTS indices. As a result of multiple
comparisons between simulated situations, we have succeeded in determining a
possible range of values for indices-orientations (see Table 3), and that
confirms their trustworthiness. For example, the extreme situations for the
second index are as follows: in 1997 the ratio of the public to private
transport in Kazakhstan was 78 to 22%, while Australia demonstrated the ratio
of 29 to 71%.
Table 2: Range
of values for indices-orientations.
|
Indices-orientations |
Range of values |
|
|
1. Transport mobility of the population with social
and cultural purposes, trips/person a year |
100 |
|
|
2. Ratio of public and individual transport, % |
80:20 |
|
|
3. Reliability of urban transportation, % |
0 |
|
|
4. Level of development of muscular transportation,
% |
0 |
|
|
5. Level of transport discrimination of the
population, % |
0 |
|
|
6. Level of comfort and convenience of conveyance,
persons/sq. m |
3 |
|
|
7. Specific lost fund of free time a day, hours a
day per person |
0.1 |
|
|
8. Share of transport pollution in the total
pollution, including public urban transport |
10 5 |
|
|
9. Accident level through fault of transport: number of
fatal injuries per 105 passengers; number of fatal injuries per 104 vehicles. |
3 2 |
|
|
10. Efficiency of urban passenger transportation |
1 |
350
20:80
100
With the help of the methodology
of calculation of the UTS parameters we received the indices-orientations for
Nalchik. They can be used for the purposes of strategic planning and creation
of a new financing mechanism for development of urban passenger transportation.
Table 4 contains UTS for Nalchik. The following strategic parameters were
chosen: real income per one citizen is from 1000 to 5000 dollars a year, level
of social expenditure is from 20 to 40% of the budget, level of ecological
safety is medium. These strategic norms will be valid for more than 10 years
given medium potential of development according to the industrial potential and
demographic structure of the population.
Table 3: Urban
transport standard of Nalchik (UTS).
|
Indices-orientations |
Values |
|
1. Transport mobility of the population with social
and cultural purposes, trips/person a year |
150 |
|
2. Ratio of public and individual transport, % |
70 : 30 |
|
3. Reliability of urban transportation, % |
over 85 |
|
4. Level of transport discrimination of the
population, % |
less than 13 |
|
5. Level of comfort and convenience of conveyance,
persons/sq. m |
less than 4.5 |
|
6. Specific lost fund of free time a day, hours a
day per person |
less than 0.2 |
|
7. Share of transport pollution in the total
pollution, including public urban transport |
50 10 |
|
8. Accident level through fault of transport: number of
fatal injuries per 105 passengers; number of fatal injuries per 104 vehicles. |
11 9 |
|
9. Efficiency of urban passenger transportation |
1.17 |
As a matter of fact, Table 4 can be called a "profile"
of the transport system of Nalchik as it will be in 10 years In other words, it
gives us an idea of the future transport conditions in Nalchik.
As soon as the strategy of sustainable development by
means of transport is outlined, the expert system itself (on the basis of the
database) generates proposals that will make achievement of the given ten UTS parameters
possible. Thus, now we are speaking not so much about effectiveness of separate
transport projects, but about efficiency of life in the city in general. Such a
shift is due to the fact that every generated technical proposal (increase in
traffic frequency on routes, enlargement of the transport pool, reconstruction
of tracks, construction of a motor-transport depot, set up of a "green line")
is transferred directly into the indices important to each and every
citizen-taxpayer. Reports about reduction of specific consumption of fuel or
quantitative indices of transport functioning are of little interest to
taxpayers, but UTS indices are of great importance to them. Every department in
charge of urban transport development should report back to the citizens
through the indices of UTS increase.
Later, expert system Geograd will combine
heterogeneous proposals into a satisfactorily substantiated investment
programme and will add up some financial scenarios of its implementation with
regard to its multiple peculiarities.
references
1. Velmozhin
& Gukov Teoria
transportnyh
protsesov [Theory of
transport processes]. Moscow. 1998.
2. Socio-economic issues in development of
urban transport systems and zones under their influence. Ekaterinburg.
1999.
3. Prospects
of passenger transportation development. Forecast
of the International Institute of Systems Analysis. 1995.
4. Sustainable urban development, Vol 1,2.
Committee of Telecommunications and Mass Media of the Moscow government. 1999.
5. Urban Transportation Indicators in Eight
Canadian Urban Areas. Transport Association of Canada. June 1996.