Bougromenko V. Minimal Transport Standard as a basis of the state transport policy in Kazahstan

Proceedings of Seminar J. PTRC 25-th ETF London, 1997, P.133-148

 

Kazahstan is a great transport power. In different ways, all transport modes are presented there (table 1, fig 1).

Spatial unity of this state is provided by the United Transport Network (UTN), so far being able to serve as the country ‘blood system’. In other words, one of the factors of the state self-sufficiency is its provision with proper transport communication. The state’s ability to maintain it’s function considerably depends on extension, topology, capacity, technical equipment of its road communications.

Among such functions are depended on transport progress level one could emphasize the following blocks.

  1. Geopolitical block: The use of benefits of transport-geographical position (communicational ‘non-isolationness’ from external world, transit potentials of the terri tory). Mobilization alert for civil and military purposes.
  2. Economic block: Competitive ability of economy, including the reduction of tariff restriction burden, exchange of commodities volume. Extension and activisation of natural resources turnover.
  3. Social block: Protection of democratic values, and human right, including reduction of unemployment and social injustice in territorial aspects. Increase of consumption of socially-guarantied minimum services as a basis of the improvement of quality of life standards, including demographic aspects.
  4. Ecological block: Environmental safety.

Transport and reliability of territorial organization of the society.

Under the condition of market relations formation, the attitude towards transport is being changed as to a branch not only involved in cargo and passenger transportation but rather a whole inter branch system able to reform conditions of life and management. The fact is being realized that transport progress is the first condition of a successful backwardness overcoming. Ability for territorial division of labor, as well as an extension of commodities exchange will only appear due to an effective transport system formation. Thus, the process of regional transport network formation should be conducted under the badge of some goals as follows

  1. Safety increase, including both external (not only military) and domestic safety, the latter being connected with the well-being of environment and the state of the national health.
  2. Reduction of management uncertainly level (risk) dependent on transport factors. (When specific costs reduction is important, it specially concerns passenger and partially cargo transportation, where the time of delivery is limited).
  3. Social and territorial justice, which is understood as a guarantee of transport accessibility for population to life values/comfort and also presumes a sufficient free time saving.

All the above-mentioned could be generalized as a problem of reliability of society territorial organization where transport communications play key role. Our main thesis dawn is therefore as follows whereas the decisions on transport are touching the interests of all activity subjects at given territory, the integral criterion for optimization of such a decision could be only ‘structural’ criterion’, namely maximum reliability which is proposed [1,2].

Generally, one could understand reliability as quality of object to maintain given functions. Reliability is difficult quality, including durability, maintenance, stability, etc. The choice of reliability index or system of indices is conditioned by the specifics particularity of given functions. UTN ability to maintain consumer qualities in a given interval could be considered as reliability criterion of it’s functioning from the country point of view. The set of network consumer qualities in given interval, meeting the above-mentioned state goals is the Minimal Transport Standard (MTS), see below for details.

Assessment of functioning reliability for UTN of Kazahstan.

The main index of functioning reliability in UTN is the correlation of normative and virtual values of Integral Transport Accessibility (ITA) which could be named the level of transport provision. ITA is a key notion and indicator, generally characterizing the ability of UTN (all modes) to change the surrounding of the population and terms of management. This indicator has such great abilities because at the ‘entrance’ it contains the details about each individual sector of UTN, reflecting particularity of every transport mode, and every point in the network (inhabited or economic locality), whereas at the exit it has an average weighted time expenditures by every point, which is needed to achieve from it to any other selected one, within the given network, not between pair of points (this is a private case analyzed automatically) but between given point and all other. In other words, ITA shows potential ability of transport system to introduce any connections (cargo and passenger) in respect to the consumer needs that could characterize maturity of market relations.

ITA evaluation is conducted in regard not only to the technical reliability of separate network elements but it’s topological reliability as well. All this allows to take a new view on common notion about transport, and also review traditional opinion towards the state transport policy. Table 2 outlines some part of these indices, characterizing the reliability of UTN functioning. Exactness of evaluation could be judged according to UTN dimensions (first index). Coefficient of technical reliability is a result of every network element (by 1 - 7 parameters specific for every transport mode). For example, for railways this may be speed in sector, cargo type, presence of auto-block, or speed limits in dangerous sectors. For river transportation one could consider deepness of navigation, continuance of navigation, type of fleet, while at motor roads they will be pavement types, width of roadway, lay, condition of pavement, dangerous sectors, traffic, etc.

Probability of connection characterizes the quality of UTN protraction and shows how much the network configuration is a resource of region. Probability of connection measure gives comparative integral notion about ability to restore UTN function in full volume in case damages any of network sectors. At last UTN reliability (common transport provision) is a rate between norm of ITA and it’s actual indicator.

As one could see in Table 2, the best rate of UTN reliability for cargo belongs to the south part of Kazahstan and for passenger transportation to Atiray and Kizil-Orda. This was achieved due to the major part of settlements are located along one or two ways in distinct from dispersion settling in Almaty area or East Kazahstan area by approximately the same length of ways.

Passage to indices of final transport services usage means that transport infrastructure are defined finally by external efficiency (by those who use it directly or even don’t use it at all) but not inner efficiency (by those who build and exploit). Thus, the main condition for an effective transport functioning is the balance between private economic interests and interests of consumers. Experience says that even under the conditions of free market it is not always easily achieved. The best way to provide such balance of interests is to distinct functions of customer and contractor (producer of transport services) and this posses should not obligatory be followed by full privatization. More over, sometimes it’s advisable in any way that the state supports private producers of transport services. The main goal remains the distinction of purpose-oriented interests. For services producers, it is profit. For consumer, in the face of republic and regional authority of management on transport, it is a complex mixture of geopolitical, economic, social, ecological interests introducing of which not always brings profit to services producers.

Mobilizing abilities of UTN.

Abilities of transport system as for mobilization of different purpose resources are depend on carrying capacity, equipment of roads (including ability of docking by mixed haulage) and topological value of network (i. g. ability to pave alternative way in case of emergency in every sector of shortest route). One could see from ITA evaluation on Kasahstan at whole that the main role in common accessibility by cargo transportation for dominate numbers of settlements is played by railway (rate of ITA among three land transport modes). Within a lot of areas, the situation is different while motor transport plays the main role . The ITA map gives common notion about mobilizing readiness of republic transport system where every zone shows ability in reaching any republic is geographical point for definite period. (Fig 2). Increasing of mobilizing abilities for UTN of Kazahstan means extension of its most prosperous zone (i. g. with a given minimum rate of ITA). For today, this country has none point (settlement) on map for which ITA norms 13.5 hour. is provided. It is supposed that all inhabited areas of Kazahstan should have such a transport network, which could provide accessibility from any of it’s point to selected one for average time not exceed 13,5 hour. In fact, the best situation seen is altogether 17 hours, and this zone covers just only the little strip between Karaganda and Akmala cities. South-central zone is much worse from the point of view of mutual accessibility, especially Chemkent where the ITA exceeds 35 hours.

Transit potential of Kazahstan transport system.

The geographic position of Kazahstan in the middle of broad Eurasian space destined leading roll of Kazahstan transport system in transit transportation. Within the frame of “Geogracom” 4W expert system, it is now possible to receive a detailed rate of accessibility between certain couple of points with regard factors, limiting mobilizing readiness. More over, it is possible to get a potential damage evaluation in case of emergencies on separate sectors of UTN.

There are three main transit ways through Kazahstan: Europe-China (conditionally north variant with Russian participation), Europe-China (through south part of Central Asia - new “Silk Way”), Russia - Central Asia republics (North-South). Preliminary variant of transport potential evaluation by these three named directions is described in Table 3. Basic infrastructure projects are considered in this table, as well as expenses connected with them (i. g. investment and operating). Annual profit in volume of $ 1.025 bill. should be considered as a minimum rate of Kazahstan for it’s transport-geographic position. Other states of Central Asia show noticeable difference to Kazahstan in this index. Usbekistan and Turkmeniay give to one level, Kirgiziay and Tadjikistan even to three levels. North-south direction will outrun two other directions taken one with another by potential abilities in the nearest 10 years.

Transport and diversity aspects of market conditions.

Backwardness of transport infrastructure is able to considerably retard the market-formation process because commodities exchange under lack of roads is impossible. Not occasionally, inland, in spite of declared promotion of market reforms, a little has been changed but is getting worse. An advantage of market is in diversity of conditions for production and usage that is a natural basic of competition. However without transport communications even industrial diversities are stayed uncollected. One should notice some analogy between territorial diversities of social activity conditions and bio-diversity in biology. The latter is an important factor in life evolution. All the same, diversity of place and territory (of course if there is an access to them) is an important factor for recovery of business and social life in any state. In other words, under the conditions of movement to market relations, the approaches to planing of motor roads network progress in region should be changed greatly. First of all it relates to final goals setting for this progress. The main task is therefore to create such transport-communication linkages as (technically and topologically) united transport network, instead of tack aimed at reduction of transport costs. Transport- communication linkages will provide some normative (guaranteed minimum) level of facility and profitability for consumers of transport services when realizing any possible linkage.

The primary goal is to direct profits from such a normative network functioning to certain address. Let the reduction of transport costs (pure production task) be the main goal for transport services producers, hereupon the consumers will finally win. Creation of prosperous conditions must be an important concern of the state. Conditions which could be generalized to the following regulation will be declared in MTS documents.

Transport provision for GDP.

An effort was done to particularly estimate this transport issue in life of the republic, considering the special roll of motor roads in creation of normal surroundings of social activity in the regions. Table 4 shows the state costs to motor roads in % of total GDP in Kazahstan, comprising with some other states [6]. Generally, the level of state backing is considered normal at the 1% rate, though it can and must essentially range depending on level of UTN progress. In the first instance, so-called “road assets” (difference between total net contribution of roads to GDP and costs in % from GDP) could be the index of necessity to increase state backing. If the costs raise but the assets is not cut down, the increase of state backing is advisable.

First results of preliminary evaluation of road “assets” are given in Table 5. As it turned out economy of Kazahstan receives almost five times as many than spend to roads from exploitation of roads at whole. Industry is turned out in special benefit, and also motor transport, which actively use road network, but their contribution to GDP from concrete usage of infrastructure segment is not significant. There is an opposite picture in the building industry. Like estimations (including other transport modes) allow to make conclusions as per an economic advisability of their state backing from the point of view of the state’s macroeconomics goals and tax-payer.

At least, if the problem was with the differentiation of tax road rates, they would be decreased in construction complex, although in industry and motor transport there will be an increase.

Population mobility

Transport communications play a special role in the development of democratic values and human rights. Synthetic index of this is a population mobility having social-cultural aims. As far as such travellings express the freedom of a choice and contactedness. In isolated undemocratic associations the freedom of contacts selection is not encouraged by the state due to the week network transport development. Volume of passenger carrying in Kazahstan during the past years is constantly reducing. This fact is a result of two reasons (the falling credibility of population and lower availability of potential places for visiting) though the norm of trips equal to 0.6 of economically developed territory is invariable. For Kazahstan, this norm is 1700 km. That is every Kazahstan adult citizen is to travel with social cultural aims within a year. In reality, this way is shouter more than in a half - 712 km. (32%) where-as in majority of developed countries mobility according to this norm is more than 100%. In the time of USSR, when the norm was 8000 km/man (within former USSR), every city dweller had covered 3700 km but country had covered only 2100 km. Selective sociological investigation showed that more than a half of families (54%) in Kazahstan country-side had never traveled out of their district (see [3] for details).

Influence of transport network level development on everyday life of people tells through global biorhythms (especially daily and weekly) which limiting man abilities in using accordingly regular or episodic services. So with deduction of sleep time, work, physiological procedures and so on a man can spare for trips not more than 2 hours in day without prejudice to his physical and social development. These norms are especially hard when the towns are planed. In country administrative districts these norms are differentiated according to administrative status of settlement (and set of services in them), however these norms are still hard. And only for episodic services norms are more flexible. One temporary norms can not exist as the sizes of inhabited territory, geography of settling and economic location (for example minefield of minerals) are distinctive in every region. This distinction as far as possible is to be reflected by a normative base (see Table 2)

Transport discrimination of the population.

Disparity of real transport accessibility indicators to normative ones means that people in given settlement receive less services of socially guaranteed minimum. In other words, there is a transport discrimination when because of poor transport conditions some parts of dwellers in region are in worse conditions than other. There is another description of this social phenomena: territorial aspect of social injustice. In administrative-order model of socialism centralized economic there took place a stable reproduction of social injustice. While the deficit of goods was reproduced directly, the social injustice was mainly presented indirectly through insufficiently developed transport infrastructure.

In global scale, gross level of social injustice is lowering. Gradually through with insufficient temps calculating by 10.000 dwellers the providing with market space, accommodation, sick-beds etc was increased until but it doesn’t guarantee any social justice. The last goal may be reached only by the guarantee of accessibility to social well being. For example, under the condition of lack of good roads at a distance more than 4.000 km from hospital people take medical services 2 or 2.5 times rarely and this fact promotes increase of chronic diseases and mortality in a country-side. It is felt that the problem of territorial social injustice may be resolved in two ways:

  1. To build in every settlement socially guarantee services (centre of health, education, culture, every day services, post-office, trade) which is impossible (besides the purpose from the economic point of view)
  2. Improvement of transport accessibility to limited number of centres where all services exist at a proper quality level.

The latter way demands less capital investments and time. Let us formulate economic aspect of transport discrimination of population: rise rate of social guarantee minimum services consumption must not pass ahead rise rate of transport accessibility. Otherwise it would be a reason of greater society lamination because even under the presence of services the last will be spatially inaccessible for some part of population. And as this part of population has as a rule less incomes, in this case we are to receive a double-negative effect. Accordingly, when outrunning progress of transport of transport infrastructure exists, we have double positive effect. Consumption of socially important services is raising along with free time fund raising under given conditions social infrastructure is using more effectively without additional investments to it. Comparative data received from a row of Russian regions tells us that the same results (specific consuming of services and free time fund increasing)could be achieved on the average 4.5 - 6 times as cheaper if investments are made to transport but not to social infrastructure (in inhabited regions this rule does not work).

Territorial organization of health service in Aktubinsk area is shown in Fig. 3. It is typical for Kazahstan, where specific provision by doctors and sick-beds depending on settlement status is shown by flowing graphs. Ultimate zones of normative transport accessibility for special medical services (local hospitals) are shown by lines. As one could see, just only 3 north regions got into normative zone at large. In other regions these zones (one could call “zones of life”) cover just only a part of inhabited territory.

The results of some indices are given in Table 2, new in the practice of strategic planing of transport systems.

The level of population transport discrimination (share of population living out of normative accessibility zones, %): None of Kazahstan areas didn’t comply with normative indicators (0%). In Russia there is almost a half of such areas having no transport discrimination of population, in republics of Baltic, in majority of European countries there are no such a territorial units at all.

  • Quantity of population subjected to transport discrimination, (thousands). (the “leader” is South Kazahstan area as most inhabited with almost one million of discriminated dwellers)
  • Free time lost fund owing to poor transport conditions thousands. men/hour

Influence of lack in transport provision on social development (with due regard for all diversity of conditions) is shown most adequately. by the last two indices.

  • Average weighted inaccessibility of social guaranteed minimum services indicating on the average how much time every adult is to spend (above limits given by biorhythms) inside of a week to receive vitally needful services. Here the worst situation is in West Kazahstan and especially in Zhezazgan areas. At the last to receive elemental medical service (e.g. dentist), pensioner protection plan, daily living services (e.g. to repair household appliances) etc., 6.2 hours besides 2 hours given by nature are needed. The majority of population, especially in the country-side have not such a reserve of free time as well as, and money to pay for travel expenses. Therefore, a great number of people consciously refuse from getting of vitally important services. As a result, the potential of nation it’s(gene-fund) is degrading sufficiently in many aspects.
  • Differentiation of transport provision gives a notion how discriminative the transport conditions are in different parts of a certain area. The normal level of diversity is considered 30%. In reality the picture in all areas is more contrast. Paradoxically, there is less shrinking in Kizil-Orda area (that is everywhere is equally bad), and maximum contrast seen in considerably prosperous Almaty area.

Transport and the nature issues.

Generally, the direct influence of transport on nature could be defined by means of nature capacity of transport systems, and the rate of such influence could be integral indicator of transport destabilization in nature surroundings. (share of transport in total pollution). Now we will consider the negative influence of transport on nature. The first problem deals with the fact that transport constructions occupied land: from 7% in country to 20%-30% in towns. Land-consuming capacity could be reduced by means of combined arterial roads (transport wisp), when in one strip several transport communications are placed. But series of accidents on such sectors (foremost of them was Bashkir tragedy in 1991) made to return again to more hard ratio between land economy and security.

Finally, outbreaks to atmosphere, air, soil, and pollution by heavy metals, organic, and other toxic agents are stayed as the main factor. The share of transport in total pollution is estimated at 54%, with some 36% in former USSR, 34% in Czech Republic and 22.5% in Japan [5].

For Kazahstan the following results are found.

  • outbreaks from all types of sources - 4289 thousands. tons.
  • outbreaks from stationary sources - 3118 thousands. tons.
  • total outbreaks on transport - 1171 thousands. tons. (27.3%)
  • including motor transport - 1064 thousands. tons. (90.9%)

Minimal transport standard as a basis of state transport policy.

The above-mentioned aspects of state functioning and indicators reflecting them could be combined under the frame of MTS. MTS is a combination of purpose indices of final transport services consuming, expressed in a comparable form. The set of these indices gives orients of sustainability in that part where it depends on transport. There is no place for branch (industrial) indices like net cost of cargo, volume of roads commissioning, power supply, needs in bitumen , cement etc. Generalized indices are presented depend on the results of transport functioning and therefore are of interest to consumer in the face of state and regional government.

Diapason of rate for selected indices is defined by the following territorial peculiarities of the region.

A - by total present level of region development (e.g. per head GDP in comparable units). It’s clear that USA and Chad (one of the poorest country in Africa) will have different opportunities to achieve even equally understood normal transport conditions, though probably it will be different concepts of normality - particular present level of region development - grade of backwardness in road network development (the rate here could be the quantity of roads with capital pavement less than 200 km./1000 km. of economically inhabited , but not gross total territory).

B - total potential of regional development (e.g. total recoverable reserves of power timber, mineral resources) and particular potential level of region development - potential of technological innovation in the region (by means of indicators of technology import, and through purchasing of license, or % self-employed high educated population)

Ñ - dimensions of economically developed (inhabited) territory.

Generally, MTS should reflect the orientation of society to values, which could be achieved in long term outlook (10-15 years) with due regard for economical, social, political, ethnic and other peculiarity of region. Table 6 gives project of MTS of Kazahstan republic, while Supplement 1 gives project of MTS for every area. MTS gives level of state opportunities realized in consecutive order: value of indices, at the present time characteristic for the most developed countries ® typical MTS values, achievable under the present level of technological innovation ® total diversion from typical value characterizing peculiarity of Kazahstan and reflected through selection of indicators priority A, B, C ® actual value of MTS indicators. As it is seen from the table, almost all indicators are not significant, the latter meaning that that state backing is needed to bring it to a desired level. However, the state could make this task much easier by lowering its demands to transport surroundings (although in this case it must admit itself either developing or poor country). According to our opinion, numerical values of MTS indices reflect real opportunities and potentials of Kazahstan for the nearest 20 - 25 years. Having declared MTS as an official document and made it the basis of state transport policy, Kazahstan gave an encouraging example to other countries including Russia.

Proposed set of indices and marks is not strictly determined, it could be added or reduced, although in any case indices must correspond to all the above-mentioned demands of transport standards. So the two last indices (i.e. the level of road permeability for inter-regional borders and level of spatial unity of region, reflected how all settlements are connected between each other by roads with capital pavement) are in some cases particular in comparison with other. On the other hand, the index of level of muscular transport modes development is exotic, though this fact reflects rather a world wide ecological tendency. For example, in the Netherlands 34% of all suburban and urban passenger transportation is carried by bicycles.

Thus, MTS raised to the rank of state policy is much more democratic method of transport problem decision in social market economic. From the above-mentioned, the common scheme of financial provision in transport - road complex can be logically concluded. First, on the stage of MTS forming the long-term aims of transport complex are declared aiming at the general well being of all the final users. On the second stage, branch transport and combined investment programs are designed in order of their realization to defined on the base of effectiveness in reaching normative values for MTS indicators. As a result, we receive combined volume of required investments subdivided into private, foreign, and state budged. The last are divided in a current budget and a budget of future development. Then state budget investments are brought to % from GDP with due regard for “threshold of sensibility” of every road branch (just like “transport assets” as in Table 5). This index of state backing is confirmed every year by budget low but at the local level it’s exceeding is allowed. In accordance with a previously defined level of state backing, the tax rates are to be corrected in the road sphere [4].

Logical scheme of financial provision for transport systems.

Minimal Transport Standard

Required volume of financing for achieving MTS

Required volume of financing in % from GDP with due regard for ‘the threshold’ of active transport influence on GDP increasing.

Reconstruction of tax system in transport sphere.

Conclusions

  1. Guaranteed profits from using by Kazahstan of its own transit position are not less than 1 bill. Doll. per year.
  2. Advisability to take Minimum Transport Standard as an official standard when introducing the state transport policy. The success from activity of Ministry of Transport and communications in Kazahstan with rate of promotion to MTS accepted values.
  3. It is necessary to provide state backing priority in 4 areas, distinguishing by greatest sharpness of transport problems: Aktubinsk, East-Kazahstan, Atirau, and especially West-Kazahstan as the most backward.
  4. Under the conditions of financial deficit, there are two ways for liquidation of territorial aspect of social injustice: investment in social infrastructure and investment in transport infrastructure (mainly in road network) in these cases one should give preference to the last.
  5. Native population found themselves the most discriminated therefore for leveling life conditions of different ethnic groups intensive road building is needed able to reduce contrast in transport conditions of vital activity at inter-regional level.
  6. One of effective ways to prevent reducing of national potential (level of transport discrimination) must be the policy of compensation for unsatisfactory transport conditions at the expenses of local budgets that will stimulate strictly purpose using of funds for progress of infrastructure.
  7. Stable financing is needed to stimulate road infrastructure progress. The tax on road users must be not less than 1.3 % ( but the tax itself must be reformed because for today it is not market in content.) in this case one should provide for adequate deductions to road profit with VAT and excise duty to fuel. The criteria of expediency for state backing of transport branches must be the positive contribution “assets” in GDP from usage of their main funds by branches-users.
  8. At the present time freight capacity of Kazahstan economy exceeds normative rates and indicates that transport although makes considerable contribution to GDP increasing but no matter stays as a burden for economy. By means of improvement of integral transport accessibility it is possible to increase mobility of transport economic linkages, provide lowering in freight capacity of GDP.
  9. In accordance with raised loading to transit haulage on republican road network one should envisage the compensation for their reconstruction at the expense of budget for future development.

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