Strategy Applied Portals

Bougromenko V.

Research and consulting company Geogracom, 117415, p.o.box 23, Moscow, Russia

Fax: +7(095) 9365401, e-mail: ooogeo@online.ru

Abstract

Obsession with predictions and horoscopes does not wane, but remain constant despite the progress in all spheres of life. Very soon reporting to future generations about present deeds will be a usual procedure. This is a kind of intellectual confession that will become a part of corporate ethics. And Strategy Applied Portals (SAP) will be the tool.

SAP should be based on Artificial Intelligence systems. Particularly, Geogracom company is currently building a portal for transport urban development that includes databases on economy, traffic safety and traffic organisation, technology and technical norms, and social parameters of urban transportation. In cases when there are no data or information is not clear, the expert system suggests lacking “data-analogues” from its own experience to stop up gaps.

The SAP for sustainable urban development is the answer of information technologies to the need of the society for a “calculated future” and for a common responsibility before future generations.

This article sets out an approach to the problem of strategic spatial development through transport network re-organisation. The paper describes an expert system for strategic transport planning and introduces the concept of the Minimal Transport Standard (MTS). The authors have studied the experience of developed and developing countries and formulated a set of indices on the basis of ecological, economic, social and geopolitical parameters of spatial development. In order to derive the MTS indices it is necessary to determine strategic parameters of regional development (e.g. life expectancy, GDP per capita etc.) and set the planning horizon, and by doing so conceive the future for the present and next generations.

The primary task of the expert system, lying in the basis of SAP, is to increase the quality of life by means of transport. Thus, effectiveness of transport functioning is of second priority and serves to ensure improvement and maintenance of the general conditions of living and business activity. The expert system is universal, but it has been mainly used in developing countries and the regions of the Russian Federation.

KEY WORDS: planning support system, forecasting, sustainable development, strategic planning

1.  Control of sustainable development through computer

Sustainable development allows us to rationally use all the recourses today and at the same time not to deprive future generations of the same right. Keep in mind that we are not talking only about ecological (as it was initially declared in Rio de Janeiro in 1992) aspects, but also about economic, social and even geopolitical aspects of our life. Economical use of bitumen on roads helps to cut down construction costs and ensures bigger profit, but it does not make any difference to future generations or current consumers. On the other hand, it is interesting to know what environmental effects it will have, how it will affect our rights, quality of living, travelling comfort and convenience. It brings us to believe that we need the ideology of direct calculation of all costs of end consumption that will not involve intermediate branch indices. After all, what is really important is not effectiveness of industry itself, but quality of live created and sustained by industry. Here lies the difference between strategic and current (even long-term) planning.     

Difference between terms and essence of current and strategic planning

However such ideology requires new type of software. Therefore the task was to build software with a database that would not confuse a manager that is used to his own narrow profile. The result will be a White Book from which a manager will be surprised (and proud!) to learn that his activity has brought about a lot of good.

The difficulty that we came across was rather psychological than technological. Self-respect of managers turned out to be low not only in Russia where salaries are low too, but abroad as well. It is proved by the fact that the division for evaluation of social effects from investment projects that was set up within the World Bank seven years ago did not show itself much. Though additional social benefits can be money that comes back to improve a project. It is especially true for infrastructures, e.g. transportation.

Driven by this assumption we built SAP around transport infrastructure.

Since 1986 when P.Bonsall and H.Kirby (1986) drew attention to the problem of using exert systems in the transport sector, no serious attempt has been made to create an expert system for strategic transport planning. We do not argue that there are a lot of various information systems of good quality for transport sector needs, but they are all built to assist in current planning, while we are talking about strategic planning. The following is some types of transport systems:

•      ITS (Intelligence Transport Systems) design “green” lanes, automatic crossroads control, congestion elimination, “automatic pilotage” of land transport modes, traffic control (also with the use of GPS). 

•      Traditional systems, as a rule, use updated methods (especially from the graph theory) to design traffic flows, because flow forecast is still the main factor in transport investment projects.

•      Complex (technological in essence) systems, including Artificial Intelligence systems with powerful DBMS and integrated GIS. The example is HDM-4 (hdm4.piarc.org) and TRIPS (www.mva-group.com) that is widely used for complex urban transport systems.

It is unquestionable now that a good system for strategic planning in any domain should be an expert system with a powerful knowledge base capable of a direct conversion of some narrow-purpose knowledge to common ideas about sustainable development.

Relatively big and constantly renewed list of software products for all directions of transport development is available in the annual McTrans (1999). But we could not trace any system for strategic transport planning there.

Hence there is a need for strategic expert systems that will address the re-estimation of a fundamental understanding of the role of transport. For example, a lot of traditional views, approaches, methods, and criteria for measuring transport effectiveness changed drastically with the advent of a market economy in so many countries. Before, transport was based on determination of volumes – the achievement of transport activity. Certain systems for planning of transport development are oriented not so much towards the transport service users, but more towards the providers of transport services. Moreover, it often happens that interests of different transport modes are in conflict. That is why the issue of risk reduction by means of transport network improvement appears to be of extreme importance. Its effective solution will influence the economic and social development and ecological situation in a region. Thus, the achievement of desirable social and economic conditions in a region becomes the task of the strategic planning of any transport network.

2. Minimal Transport Standard

What are the indices of end transport service consumption? We believe they should reflect the conditions of living and business activity, economic and social situation in a region. Collectively, they can be called a Minimal Transport Standard (MTS).

Table 1. Indices for a Minimal Transport Standard (MTS)

The first and the tenth indices account for the ecological conditions of a territory. Transport is responsible for air and noise pollution that affect our health and deteriorate living conditions. So, the major concern here should be reduction of the transport share in total pollution. Use of “muscular”, or non-motorised, transport modes, such as bicycles, should be an important component of any transport policy, and people should be encouraged to walk and use bicycles where it is possible. As it can be seen from the table developed countries are generally successful in this aspect, whilst developing countries ignore obvious advantages of non-motorised modes. These indicators are taken into account at the stage of network development when decisions are made about improvement of road pavement, alternative sources of energy, mileage reduction and creation of car-competitive transport modes.

The economic side of transport network performance is reflected by indices 6 and 11. The freight capacity of the economy (indicator 6) continually decreases in developed countries. The lower is its value, the greater is the influence of the scientific and technical progress on transportation and the more effective is location of production facilities across a territory. On the contrary, the state profitability index, being a ratio of results to costs should increase.

The MTS indices also have a direct relation to the social conditions.

The index of transport discrimination of the population (index 3) shows the percentage of the population that lives outside the zone of the normative accessibility, which means they are not provided with the acceptable level of transport services.  Of cause, in small countries with a dense transport network (e.g. Bulgaria) this problem does not exist. But, in general, it is known even to developed countries like Canada or Austria, let alone developing countries and countries with a transitional economy. For example, in Russia transport discrimination of the population is 70-80% in 9 out of 87 regions.

Index 4 is in a way similar to index 3. The free time lost is time spent by every adult in excess of the norm during a week in order to receive services of the socially guaranteed minimum (education, medical treatment, shopping etc.).  According to daily biorhythms a person should not spend more that two hours on trips a day.  Otherwise trips start consuming time that should be devoted to rest, children and other household duties. Moreover, a low motorization level and poor transport network discourage people from travelling provoking increase in transport discrimination.

The share of public transport (index 9) depends on density of the population. For example, in developing countries with low population density, public transport share should be considerably bigger than the share of individual motor transport.

The ratio of capital investments (index 8) reflects tendencies in the world transport policy to give priority to investments in infrastructure. Such an approach is more effective from the point of view of the sustainable development, since a better infrastructure ensures better network parameters, like connectedness and accessibility, that have a long-term character and will be to the benefit of future generations.

The index of transport network reliability (index 2) is an indicator of the development level of a transport network. The almost century-old indices, like the Engel’s coefficient (“transport network length” divided by “size of territory” or “population size”), used to measure this parameter are somewhat dated. The one that is suggested here assesses a transport network in a different way.

The concept of Integral Transport Accessibility (ITA) is essential for its better understanding. The transport network reliability is measured as ratio of actual ITA to normative ITA and characterises potential ability of a network to provide for any passenger and freight conveyances.

ITA is time needed to reach a certain place from any other place within a given territory taking into account technical and topological reliability. Technical reliability allows transport system users to travel along road sections with a desired speed. Topological reliability is the possibility to keep a network in service when some of its sections are out of order. Bougromenko (1996) explains that ITA is a key notion because it characterises in general the ability of a transport network to change the social and economic environment. ITA also helps to estimate the size of the population living outside the zones of standard transport accessibility (degree of transport discrimination of population), as well as free time loss.

The monograph of Bougromenko (1987) is solely devoted to the new analytical index of transport provision (contrary to Engel’s descriptive index). The scope of this paper does not permit its detailed description, but here is the short version of the ITA formulation:

, where

S_i is an average (shortest) distance from every settlement i to all other network settlements (n);

k_i is the coefficient of variation of the shortest routes;

T_i is the cyclicity coefficient for the settlement i (or connectedness probability - from the theory of radio systems reliability);

V_n is a normative (technical) route speed.

The most important indicator of is the index of population mobility (index 7), not general however but for social and cultural purposes (e.g. medical treatment, travelling, seeing friends etc.). Meanwhile, the number of obligatory trips (to work, collage etc.) should decrease. Numerous studies carried out in different countries showed that an average annual mobility of a person (measured in person-km) is more or less like a trip across the territory in question. In other words, an average annual distance traveled by a person within a certain territory will approximately equal the diameter of the inhabited territory.

The MTS indices differ from conventional ones ([9], 1996), and we believe that MTS reflects aspiration of a society to values that can be achieved through a long-term outlook (10-15 years) with due regard to economic, social, political, ethnic and other peculiarities of a region.

And on the contrary most of the 20 indices mentioned by Transportation Association of Canada (1996) are just stating facts. For example, two out of three Environmental Impact indices describe annual consumption of fuel per capita. However, it is obvious that fuel consumption is an intermediate index from the sustainable point of view, because pollution abatement, here accounted for as the transport share in total pollution, is more important.

MTS is a transport image of a sustainable future. In order to calculate MTS with the help of the expert system Geogracom 5W the user has to determine strategic parameters of a region first (fig. 1). These parameters include GDP per capita, life expectancy, ecological safety, social expenditure, planning horizon. The parameters describing specific features of a region are also considered:  present level of regional development (for example, it can describe transport network backwardness); potential regional development (defined by total prospected for reserves of power, timber and mineral resources); size of the economically developed territory.

The MTS indices from table 1 are interconnected through a set of strategic parameters (see fig. 1). In a special matrix even the slightest deviation of the strategic parameters from within certain intervals changes the MTS parameters. For example, fall of GDP per capita from 1000-5000 USD to less than 1000 plus a low current level of economically developed territory brings the level of transport discrimination of population from 8 to 12%. In its turn, this kind of dependency is based on the world statistics of human development indices ([7], 1997) and our own research work. Particularly, a detailed description of dependencies between population’s income, transport accessibility and annual population mobility for social and cultural purposes (index 7) can be found in [3] (1991).   

Figure 1. Input of the initial data for calculation of the MTS indices

Fig. 1. is an interface fragment of the first part of the expert system Geogracom 5W. It illustrates input of initial data needed for calculation of the MTS indices.

3. Functional structure of the expert system for strategic transport planning

Systems for strategic planning of regional development "Geogracom 5W" and of urban development "Geograd 1W" are file-server multi-user systems. The operational effectiveness of the systems were greatly increased with the introduction of the up-to-date GIS technologies and unification mechanisms of data actualisation that make it possible to represent current and predicted conditions of spatial organisation and transport infrastructure on a cartographic background. The system consists of the following components (Fig. 2):

•           Geographic information system (GIS);

•           Database management system (DBMS);

•           Knowledge base and output mechanism;

•           Functional core;

•           Report generator.

Figure 2. Generalised structure of expert system and data flows

The integrated GIS allows downloading, uploading, viewing of vector and raster maps; creation and editing of transport network objects; search and visual selection of map objects; formation of queries to subject tables; visualisation of the resulting information with the help of the GIS tools. There is also a special GIS-overlay function in the system. It simplifies the decision-making process at the stage when the system outputs comparative characteristics of the existing transport network configuration and its transformed variant.

The relational database is accessible through a SQL Server. It provides an effective access to various formats of presentation of the information objects. It includes the following units:

-          Database containing cartographic information with spatial geometrical objects (points, lines, polygons);

-          Help databases for users;

-          Database containing construction and exploitation costs and norms for calculation of investment programme effectiveness.

DELPHI was chosen as the software for the system realisation. This choice was made because of the combination of high-productive data-exchange between applications and a SQL Server, high-speed calculations, easy adjustment and programme testing, availability of a wide range of components and possibility to support objects created with the help of other programme languages. The expert system requires a PC running Windows 95/NT. The following is the recommended configuration:

-          Pentium I-II processor;

-          32-64 MB RAM;

-          200 MB min. hard disk (for the Server).

The time needed to obtain final results depends on the network size that is determined by the number of vertices. Analysis time (only general computation, and not the full cycle that includes financial aspects) (PII-400 processor) for 500 vertices is 4 min, for 1000 vertices – 25 min).

We consider Geogracom 5W an expert system, because according to the classification suggested by Telnov Y. F., the author of the most popular book on intellectual expert systems in economy ([8], 1999), we can classify Geogracom 5W, the current version, as a transforming expert system that is capable of generation of hypotheses, self-learning, etc. The most important moment in Geogracom 5W, and we already talked about it earlier, is determination of options. If there are not data or the data are not clear, the system will suggest “data-analogues” basing its decision on precedents. It is possible because the system always accumulates feedbacks and takes them into account in certain situations, basically we are talking about self-learning here. With time there will be a decision rules bank organised into five sections: should be – if…, should be – unconditionally, inhibited – if…, inhibited – unconditionally, neutral decisions. Accurateness of new “game rules” depends on how detailed and correct is the correlation between a feedback and a possible subject and situation type. All in all there are more than a thousand splitting types (from general to particular). Therefore, the tendency is to develop such expert systems as to be able to overcome the most difficult original obstacle: a subject area is summarised in a relatively small database, and the main resources of an expert system are devoted to solution of really intellectual issues in the form of heuristic models and algorithms.

There is a traditional way – to describe a subject with the help of a detailed database. Obviously, expert systems will be different: specific features of a subject area will be fully presented through the reflection of the system, literally speaking, in the form of (secondary) feedbacks. It turns out that a set of feedbacks identifies a subject more accurately than any detailed description. Besides, it requires fewer computational resources.

The system uses well-known models and algorithms (e.g. the modified algorithm of the shortest routes on a graph). But they are not the core of the system. The system does not only evaluate situations, but it defines situations itself and finds solutions on the strength of its own “experience”.

4. Structure of Strategy Applied Portals

SAP should have a simple interface that will help a narrow expert not to get confused. The system itself will convert specific knowledge into indices of sustainable development. Figure 3 is a scheme of a functional structure of a strategic portal.  

Fig. 3 SAP functional structure

At first a user learns about basics of Strategy, about a database that he can use, about restrictions that are due to specific features of a region or city (for example, it is not sensible to expect a zero transport discrimination in Canada while it is certainly possible in Belgium or Luxemburg), about step-by-step instructions. At the same time a reference system can help a user in his work with the system.

End targets of sustainable regional or urban development can be achieved either through finding solutions to problems (with a range of measures behind) or implementing certain measures (with unsolved problems behind). The problem solving should be preferred since it is more suitable for Strategy. At first, global targets are defined (with the help of strategic parameters), then – local goals. Targets can be changed, if probability to achieve them is not high enough. In any case a user receives two kinds of response:

•           financial and temporal feasibility of proposals;

•           the way the future becomes nearer once MTS parameters are achieved.

5. What comes next? From expert systems to expert portals

Obsession with predictions and horoscopes does not wane, but remain constant despite the progress in all spheres of life. Very soon reporting to future generations about present deeds will be a usual procedure. This is a kind of intellectual confession that will become a part of corporate ethics. And Strategy Applied Portals (SAP) will be the tool.

Let’s have a look into the future – what will it be like? Imagine a mayor of a big city. He is interested that every citizen understands the way city develops. (In the future election outcomes will depend not so much on election campaigns, but on convincing calculations and sketches of the future – in 3-5 years – that will be mailed to each and every voter through Internet.)

So, you enter a strategic portal and fill in a number of common and well-known urban parameters. In response the system offers you to choose a template of urban structure that is later “adjusted” with the help of certain questions asked by the system (the second variant – a city map is scanned and “inserted” into the system).

Then a “mayor”-expert can model various situations. To do so he will have to determine:

1.        his vision of the future with the help of strategic (international) parameters;

2.        financing sources and amount of investments;

3.        objects to construct, rehabilitate, destruct, etc.;

4.        priorities (ecology and safety, social issues, economic issues).

These points are an extremely important tool for voters (and candidates as well) since through the portal a “mayor” offers not just promises and illusions, but forecasted results. And no doubt it is easier to vote for the future backed up by calculations than for personal charming features of candidates. Moreover strategic planning can be interesting for people as the city administration can allow them to model their vision , no matter how fantastic, on the its site.

The main resource for further development of the system is enhancement of the knowledge base and intelligence capacity. The new version already has a better module of accumulation and internal latent analysis of feedbacks in various situations, which allows the system to change rules of “the game” itself.

The work made for these regions with the help of Geogracom 5W prompted additional investment that amounted to more than 40 million dollars. This is first of all due to a reasonable increase of the user tax rate and prevention of consolidation of the road fund and the budget. Moreover, these regions adopted a new policy of annual investment planning; there is also more understanding now between the taxpayers and regional authorities in connection with financing of certain transport objects.

Possibility of installation of the expert system on widely used PCs made the expert systems designed by Geogracom a useful tool of regional transport administrators and strategic decision-makers. Users can interfere with the decision-making process at any of the above-enumerated stages. They can even transform the transport network themselves by varying initial input data. People in 24 regions of Russia and the CIS employ the expert system of the scientific and consulting company Geogracom to achieve the goals worthy of the 21st century.

References

1.      Bonsall, P. and Kirby, H. (1986). The Role of Expert System in Transport. Information Technology Applications in Transport: Leeds University, pp. 353-382.

2.       Bougromenko, V. (1987). Transport in the spatial system. - Moscow, Russian Academy of Science, 212 p. [in Russian].

3.      Bougromenko, V. (1991). Social justice and internationality relations: territorial aspects. Soviet Geography – vol. XXXII, N8, pp. 572-575.

4.      Bougromenko, V. (1996). Economic Equivalent of Road Accessibility: case study of Russia. The Role of Transportation in Economic Development. Proceedings of IRF Asia-Pacific Regional Meeting – vol. 4, Taipei, pp. 284-293.

5.      Fergusson, E. and Ross, C. (1992). PC Software for Urban Transportation Planning. Journal of American Planning Association – vol. 58, N2, pp. 238.

6.      McTrans, (1999). – http://www-mctrans.ce.ufl.edu.

7.      Report on Human Development in Kazakhstan (1997). – Almaty, 102 p. [in Russian].

8.      Telnov Y. (1999). Intellectual information systems in economy. - Moscow, SINTI, 216 p. [in Russian]

9.      Urban transportation indicators in Eight Canadian Urban Areas (1996). – TAС,
31 p.